LEADER 02695cmm a2200409 4500
006 m fo a u
007 cr n
008 050726s2003 miu fo m eng d
a| ICPSR c| ICPSR d| EYM
a| Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time h| [electronic resource] / c| Marcelle Chauvet, Jeremy Piger
a| Ann Arbor, Mich. : b| Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], c| 2003.
a| 1 online resource.
a| ICPSR v| 1284
a| Restricted for use by site license.
a| 0 datasets.
a| Also available in print.
a| Mode of access: World Wide Web.
a| Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2004-10-30.
a| inap. c| inap.
a| United States
a| This paper evaluates the ability of a statistical regime-switching model to identify turning points in United States economic activity in real time. The authors work with a Markov-switching model fit to real Gross Domestic Product and employment data that, when estimated on the entire postwar sample, provides a chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates close to that produced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Next, they investigate how accurately and quickly the model would have identified NBER-dated turning points had it been used in real time for the past 40 years. In general, the model identifies turning point dates in real time that are close to the NBER dates. For both business cycle peaks and troughs, the model provides systematic improvement over the NBER in the speed at which turning points are identified. Importantly, the model achieves this with few instances of "false positives." Overall, the evidence suggests that the regime-switching model could be a useful supplement to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee for establishing turning point dates.... Cf.: http://dx.doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR01284
a| XVIII. PUBLICATION-RELATED ARCHIVE a| ICPSR XVIII.
a| Chauvet, Marcelle.
a| Piger, Jeremy.
a| Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
a| ICPSR (Series) ; v| 1284.
3| Access to some datasets may require login with free personal MyData account. u| http://hdl.library.upenn.edu/1017.12/492751 z| Connect to resource