Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries [electronic resource] / Michael J. Dueker.
- Ann Arbor, Mich. : Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2006.
- ICPSR (Series) ; 1328.
1 online resource.
- System Details:
- Mode of access: World Wide Web.
- Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases by which the economy adjusts to shifts in the rate of trend productivity growth. Nevertheless, cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics--the expected output loss associated with a recession--helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters. This measure of the output loss associated with a recession can take unexpected twists and turns as the recovery unfolds. The empirical results in this paper support the proposition that a weaker-than-expected rebound in the economy can partially mute employment growth for a time relative to output growth.
- Title from ICPSR DDI metadata of 2008-01-04.
- Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research.
- Access Restriction:
- Restricted for use by site license.
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