Stock-return predictability and model uncertainty [electronic resource].
- Local subjects:
- Penn dissertations -- Finance. (search)
Finance -- Penn dissertations. (search)
Penn dissertations -- Managerial science and applied economics. (search)
Managerial science and applied economics -- Penn dissertations. (search)
- System Details:
- Mode of access: World Wide Web.
- We investigate the implications of uncertainty about the return-forecasting model for the investment opportunity set. Asset allocations are computed through various approaches that differ in their treatment of model uncertainty. The optimal portfolio choices can differ to economically significant degrees, especially for short-horizon high risk-tolerance investors. We decompose the variance of predicted stock returns into several components, including model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The model-uncertainty component can be significantly higher than the parameter-uncertainty component, especially when predictive variables, such as dividend yield and book-to-market, are at their recently observed levels, and there is substantial prior uncertainty about whether returns are predictable.
- Thesis (Ph.D. in Finance) -- University of Pennsylvania, 2000.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-06, Section: A, page: 2400.
Adviser: Rob Stambaugh.
- Local notes:
- School code: 0175.
- Stambaugh, Rob, advisor
University of Pennsylvania.
- Contained In:
- Dissertation Abstracts International 61-06A.
- Access Restriction:
- Restricted for use by site license.
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