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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: [electronic resource] how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design? Adeline Delavande

Author/Creator:
Delavande, Adeline
Publication:
Washington, D.C., The World Bank, 2010
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource
Series:
Policy research working papers.
World Bank e-Library.
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Other Title:
World Bank working papers.
System Details:
Mode of access: World Wide Web.
Summary:
Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Delavande, Adeline
McKenzie, David
Giné, Xavier
World Bank.
Other format:
Print version: Delavande, Adeline. Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries.
Publisher Number:
10.1596/1813-9450-5458
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.