Franklin

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles [electronic resource] Cashin, Paul.

Author/Creator:
Cashin, Paul.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 12/255.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 12/255
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (40 p.)
Local subjects:
Aggregate demand.
Average trade.
Bilateral trade.
Business cycles.
Business Fluctuations.
Changes in trade.
Commodity exporters.
Commodity exports.
Commodity prices.
Crude oil exports.
Cycles.
Demand and Supply.
Economic integration.
Economic models.
Export revenues.
Export share.
External shocks.
Forecasting and Simulation.
Fuel exports.
Global export.
Global growth prospects.
Global macroeconomic modeling.
Global VAR (GVAR).
Impulse responses.
Increasing trade.
Interconnectedness.
International business cycle.
International trade.
Macroeconomic shocks.
Market for exports.
Merchandise exports.
Monetary union.
Oil export revenues.
Oil exporters.
Oil exports.
Oil importers.
Oil prices.
Oil revenues.
Open capital accounts.
Open economies.
Output elasticity.
Petroleum exporting countries.
Real effective exchange rate.
Reer.
Regional trade.
Spillovers.
Time-Series Models.
Trade flows.
Trade patterns.
Trade performance.
Trade relationships.
Trade share.
Trading partners.
Transmission of shocks.
World economy.
Algeria.
Asia including Middle East.
China.
Europe.
Iran, Islamic Republic of.
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.
Middle East.
North Africa.
Saint Lucia.
United States.
Summary:
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Cashin, Paul.
Mohaddes, Kamiar.
Raissi, Mehdi.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1475581645:
9781475581645
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781475581645.001
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.
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