Franklin

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2010 [electronic resource]

Author/Creator:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Research Bulletin; IMF Research Bulletin, Volume 11, No. 1.
IMF Research Bulletin; IMF Research Bulletin, Volume 11, No.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (12 p.)
Local subjects:
Banking crises.
Contagion.
Correlation.
Currency crises.
Econometrics.
Financial crises.
Forecasting.
Predictions.
Real variables.
Recession.
Recessions.
Statistics.
Survey.
Summary:
This paper provides a brief overview of the latest research on the ability of forecasters to predict recessions. The paper highlights that few recessions have been forecast before their onset. Forecasters tend to be excessively cautious and do not revise their forecasts promptly and sufficiently to reflect incoming news. Nor do they fully take into account interdependence among economies. This paper also focuses on robust growth determinants highlighting that a fundamental problem confronting researchers is the lack of an explicit theory identifying the determinants of growth.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1455291625:
9781455291625
ISSN:
1020-8313
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781455291625.026
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.
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