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Imf Drawing Programs [electronic resource] : Participation Determinants and Forecasting, Cerutti, Eugenio.

Author/Creator:
Cerutti, Eugenio.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2007.
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 07/152.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 07/152
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (27 p.)
Local subjects:
Balance of payment.
Balance of payments.
Binary choice.
Binary choice model.
Cointegration.
Computation.
Credit tranches.
Currency crises.
Currency crisis.
Current account.
Current account balance.
Current account deficit.
Current account deficits.
Debt crises.
Debt crisis.
Debt servicing.
Dummy variable.
Empirical estimation.
Equation.
Extended arrangements.
External debt.
External obligations.
Financial statistics.
Forecasting.
Government deficit.
IMF.
Imf credit outstanding.
Independent variables.
Logarithm.
Prediction.
Predictions.
Probabilities.
Probability.
Probability value.
Repayments.
Standard error.
Standard errors.
Statistics.
Survey.
Time series.
Argentina.
Bahrain.
Botswana.
Brazil.
Bulgaria.
Dominican Republic.
El Salvador.
Germany.
Indonesia.
Jamaica.
Korea, Republic of.
Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of.
Malaysia.
Mexico.
Panama.
Peru.
Romania.
Slovak Republic.
Turkey.
Summary:
This paper studies the factors that have influenced countries'' participation in IMF drawing programs. IMF drawing programs are defined as the period of a Stand-By Arrangement or an Extended Fund Facilities program during which a country borrows from the Fund. Since this definition excludes precautionary arrangements and periods during which the program went off-track, it provides a closer link to the factors that have influenced the evolution of IMF credit outstanding. The analysis uses quarterly data during the period 1982-2005 and focuses on developing, non-PRGF eligible countries. Country-specific variables-net international reserves and GDP growth-together with a global factor-world GDP growth-are found to be among the most significant determinants of countries'' participation in IMF drawing programs. The importance of the global factor is not uniform during the period reviewed. The influence of world GDP growth seems to have been significant during the 1980s debt crises but not since the Mexican crisis in 1994. An out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the period 2004-5 reveals that the model has some predictive power.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Cerutti, Eugenio.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1451867166:
9781451867169
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781451867169.001
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.
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