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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model [electronic resource] Laxton, Jared.

Author/Creator:
Laxton, Jared.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2008.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (59 p.)
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 08/279.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 08/279
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Local subjects:
Aggregate demand. (search)
Calibration. (search)
Confidence intervals. (search)
Correlation. (search)
Correlations. (search)
Deflation. (search)
Economic forecasting. (search)
Effective exchange rates. (search)
Equation. (search)
Equations. (search)
Forecasting. (search)
Forecasting models. (search)
High inflation. (search)
Increase in inflation. (search)
Increase in interest rates. (search)
Inflation. (search)
Inflation equation. (search)
Inflation process. (search)
Inflation rate. (search)
Inflation rates. (search)
Inflation target. (search)
Inflationary pressures. (search)
Integral. (search)
Measure of inflation. (search)
Model Construction and Estimation. (search)
Monetary economics. (search)
Monetary policy. (search)
Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects). (search)
Nominal interest rate. (search)
Nominal interest rates. (search)
Price Level. (search)
Projection period. (search)
Random walk. (search)
Rate of change. (search)
Rate of inflation. (search)
Rates of inflation. (search)
Rational expectations. (search)
Real exchange rates. (search)
Real interest rate. (search)
Real interest rates. (search)
Real output. (search)
Relative prices. (search)
Rise in inflation. (search)
Samples. (search)
Simultaneous equation. (search)
Standard deviation. (search)
Standard deviations. (search)
Stochastic processes. (search)
Survey. (search)
Time series. (search)
Japan. (search)
United States. (search)
Summary:
This is the second of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Carabenciov, Ioan.
Ermolaev, Igor.
Freedman, Charles.
Juillard, Michel.
Kamenik, Ondra.
Korshunov, Dmitry.
Laxton, Douglas.
Laxton, Jared.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1451871376:
9781451871371
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781451871371.001
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.