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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels [electronic resource] : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices, Pant, Malika.

Author/Creator:
Pant, Malika.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2010.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (17 p.)
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 10/186.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 10/186
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Local subjects:
Aggregate demand. (search)
Business Fluctuations. (search)
Commodity exchanges. (search)
Commodity markets. (search)
Commodity prices. (search)
Crude oil. (search)
Crude oil market. (search)
Crude oil price. (search)
Crude oil prices. (search)
Crude oil production. (search)
Cycles. (search)
Demand and Supply. (search)
Econometric analysis. (search)
Economic models. (search)
Exporting countries. (search)
Forecasting and Simulation. (search)
Gas prices. (search)
Gas supply. (search)
Geological conditions. (search)
Import demand. (search)
Million barrels. (search)
Million barrels per day. (search)
Model Construction and Estimation. (search)
Natural gas. (search)
Oil and gas. (search)
Oil consumption. (search)
Oil demand. (search)
Oil futures. (search)
Oil import. (search)
Oil imports. (search)
Oil market. (search)
Oil markets. (search)
Oil prices. (search)
Oil production. (search)
Oil supply. (search)
Opec. (search)
Opec countries. (search)
Output growth. (search)
Price analysis. (search)
Time-Series Models. (search)
Trade volumes. (search)
World oil production. (search)
Saint Lucia. (search)
Summary:
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Mühleisen, Martin.
Pant, Malika.
Thomas, Alun H.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1455202207:
9781455202201
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781455202201.001
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.