The Global Impact of Demographic Change [electronic resource] Callen, Tim.

Callen, Tim.
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2006.
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 06/9.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 06/9
Government document
1 online resource (36 p.)
Local subjects:
Adult population. (search)
Age group. (search)
Age structure. (search)
Ageing. (search)
Aging. (search)
Aging populations. (search)
Birth. (search)
Birthrate. (search)
Birthrates. (search)
Births. (search)
Bond rate. (search)
Capital flows. (search)
Death of adults. (search)
Demographic change. (search)
Demographic changes. (search)
Demographic effect. (search)
Demographic pressures. (search)
Demographic projection. (search)
Demographic projections. (search)
Demographic shifts. (search)
Demographic transition. (search)
Demographic transitions. (search)
Demographics. (search)
Dependency ratio. (search)
Dependency ratios. (search)
Domestic saving. (search)
Economic models. (search)
Elderly population. (search)
Future income. (search)
Gains in life expectancy. (search)
Global population growth. (search)
Insurance companies. (search)
Intergenerational transfers. (search)
Labor force. (search)
Labor income. (search)
Life expectancy. (search)
Life insurance. (search)
Long-term projections. (search)
Low-fertility countries. (search)
Mortality rate. (search)
Nominal wage. (search)
Number of children. (search)
Number of elderly. (search)
Pension. (search)
Pension expenditures. (search)
Pension reform. (search)
Pension reforms. (search)
Pension scheme. (search)
Pension schemes. (search)
Pension systems. (search)
Population growth. (search)
Population projections. (search)
Population size. (search)
Population structure. (search)
Private saving. (search)
Public pension. (search)
Public pension scheme. (search)
Public pension systems. (search)
Replacement rate. (search)
Replacement rates. (search)
Retirement. (search)
Retirement age. (search)
Retirement behavior. (search)
Savings. (search)
Tax rate. (search)
Total population. (search)
Transfer payments. (search)
Working age population. (search)
Working-age population. (search)
Working-age populations. (search)
World population. (search)
Young adults. (search)
Japan. (search)
United States. (search)
The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the ""medium variant"" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region.
Description based on print version record.
Batini, Nicoletta.
Callen, Tim.
McKibbin, Warwick J.
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