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Inflation Reports and Models [electronic resource] : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? Bulir, Ales..

Author/Creator:
Bulir, Ales.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2014.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (47 p.)
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 14/91.
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper No. 14/91.
Status/Location:
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Local subjects:
Business Fluctuations. (search)
Central banks. (search)
Cycles. (search)
Deflation. (search)
Economic models. (search)
Forecasting and Simulation. (search)
Inflation. (search)
Inflation targeting. (search)
Kalman filter. (search)
Keynesian economics. (search)
Monetary policy. (search)
Monetary policy communication. (search)
Price Level. (search)
Transparency. (search)
Summary:
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries.
Notes:
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Bulir, Ales.
Hurník, Jaromír.
Smidkova, Katerina.
Other format:
Print Version:
ISBN:
1498387616:
9781498387613
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781498387613.001
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.