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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? [electronic resource] / Zidong An.

Author/Creator:
An, Zidong.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (31 pages)
Series:
IMF eLibrary
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 18/39
IMF Working Papers
Status/Location:
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Summary:
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Notes:
Part of the IMF eLibrary collection.
Description based on print version record.
Contributor:
Tovar Jalles, João.
Loungani, Prakash.
Other format:
Print Version: An, Zidong How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?
ISBN:
1484344871 :
9781484344873
Publisher Number:
10.5089/9781484344873.001 doi
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.