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Are Global Imbalances Sustainable? [electronic resource] : Post-Crisis Scenarios / Luiz de Mello and Pier Carlo Padoan = Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils soutenables ? : Les scénarios d'après la crise / Luiz de Mello et Pier Carlo Padoan.

Author/Creator:
Mello, Luiz de, author
Publication:
Paris : OECD Publishing, 2010.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (32 pages)
Series:
OECD Economics Department Working Papers 18151973 ; no.795.
OECD Economics Department Working Papers 18151973 ; no.795
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Other Title:
Les déséquilibres mondiaux sont-ils soutenables ? Les scénarios d'après la crise
Subjects:
Economics.
Summary:
This paper assesses the sustainability of global imbalances by testing for the presence of unit roots in the current account positions (measured in relation to GDP) of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the oil-exporting countries using a methodology that allows for structural breaks in levels and trends. We find that the external positions of these major countries/regions are stationary around structural breaks, which define episodes of current account reversals. On the basis of an event analysis of past reversals, it appears that structural breaks are associated with shifts in the fiscal stance, exchange rate parities and potential output growth, a finding that underscores the scope for macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure the sustainability of external positions while avoiding potentially disruptive reversals. These findings have implications for long-term capital flows after the crisis.
Notes:
Title from title screen (viewed May 1, 2017).
Contributor:
Padoan, Pier Carlo.
SourceOECD (Online Service)
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.