Franklin

Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19 [electronic resource] : An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report / James Sampi.

Author/Creator:
Sampi, James.
Other Title:
World Bank working papers.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2020.
Series:
Policy research working papers
World Bank e-Library
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (24 p.)
Local subjects:
Air Quality Monitoring. (search)
Coronavirus. (search)
Economic Forecasting. (search)
Economic Growth. (search)
Google Mobility Index. (search)
Industrial Economics. (search)
Industrial Production. (search)
Information Technology. (search)
Production Growth. (search)
Summary:
This paper proposes a leading indicator, the "Google Mobility Index," for nowcasting monthly industrial production growth rates in selected economies in Latin America and the Caribbean. The index is constructed using the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Report database via a Kalman filter. The Google database is publicly available starting from February 15, 2020. The paper uses a backcasting methodology to increase the historical number of observations and then augments a lag of one week in the mobility data with other high-frequency data (air quality) over January 1, 2019 to April 30, 2020. Finally, mixed data sampling regression is implemented for nowcasting industrial production growth rates. The Google Mobility Index is a good predictor of industrial production. The results suggest a significant decline in output of between 5 and 7 percent for March and April, respectively, while indicating a trough in output in mid-April.
Contributor:
Jooste, Charl.
Other format:
Print Version: Sampi, James Nowcasting Economic Activity in Times of COVID-19: An Approximation from the Google Community Mobility Report
Publisher Number:
10.1596/1813-9450-9247
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.
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