Franklin

The Ecological Detective : Confronting Models with Data (MPB-28).

Author/Creator:
Hilborn, Ray.
Publication:
Princeton : Princeton University Press, 1997.
Format/Description:
Book
1 online resource (335 pages)
Series:
Monographs in Population Biology Ser.
Monographs in Population Biology Ser. ; v.28
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Subjects:
Ecology -- Mathematical models.
Form/Genre:
Electronic books.
Summary:
The modern ecologist usually works in both the field and laboratory, uses statistics and computers, and often works with ecological concepts that are model-based, if not model-driven. How do we make the field and laboratory coherent? How do we link models and data? How do we use statistics to help experimentation? How do we integrate modeling and statistics? How do we confront multiple hypotheses with data and assign degrees of belief to different hypotheses? How do we deal with time series (in which data are linked from one measurement to the next) or put multiple sources of data into one inferential framework? These are the kinds of questions asked and answered by The Ecological Detective. Ray Hilborn and Marc Mangel investigate ecological data much as a detective would investigate a crime scene by trying different hypotheses until a coherent picture emerges. The book is not a set of pat statistical procedures but rather an approach. The Ecological Detective makes liberal use of computer programming for the generation of hypotheses, exploration of data, and the comparison of different models. The authors' attitude is one of exploration, both statistical and graphical. The background required is minimal, so that students with an undergraduate course in statistics and ecology can profitably add this work to their tool-kit for solving ecological problems.
Contents:
Cover
MONOGRAPHS IN POPULATION BIOLOGY
Title
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Preface: Beyond the Null Hypothesis
About the Title
The Audience and Assumed Background
Computer Programming
Realism and Professionalism
Acknowledgments
1. An Ecological Scenario and the Tools of the Ecological Detective
An Ecological Scenario
The Tools for Ecological Detection
2. Alternative Views of the Scientific Method and of Modeling
Alternative Views of the Scientific Method
Statistical Inference in Experimental Trees
Unique Aspects of Ecological Data
Distinguishing between Models and Hypotheses
Types and Uses of Models
Nested Models
Model Complexity
3. Probability and Probability Models: Know Your Data
Descriptions of Randomness
Always Plot Your Data
Experiments, Events, and Probability
Process and Observation Uncertainties
Some Useful Probability Distributions
The Monte Carlo Method
4. Incidental Catch in Fisheries: Seabirds in the New Zealand Squid Trawl Fishery
Motivation
The Ecological Setting
Statistically Meaningful Data
The Data
A Negative Binomial Model of By-Catch
A Monte Carlo Approach for Estimating the Chance of Success in an Observer Program
Implications
5. The Confrontation: Sum of Squares
The Basic Method
Goodness-of-Fit Profiles
Model Selection Using Sum of Squares
6. The Evolutionary Ecology of Insect Oviposition Behavior
Motivation
The Ecological Setting
The Data
The Models
The Confrontation
Implications
7. The Confrontation: Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood
Overview
Likelihood and Maximum Likelihood
Determining the Appropriate Likelihood
Model Selection Using Likelihoods
Robustness: Don't Let Outliers Ruin Your Life
Bounding the Estimated Parameter: Confidence Intervals.
The Bootstrap Method
Linear Regression, Analysis of Variance, and Maximum Likelihood
8. Conservation Biology of Wildebeest in the Serengeti
Motivation
The Ecological Setting
The Data
The Models: What Happens When Rainfall Returns to Normal (the 1978 Question)?
The Models: What Is the Intensity of Poaching (the 1992 Question)?
The Confrontation: The Effects of Rainfall
The Confrontation: The Effects of Poaching
Implications
9. The Confrontation: Bayesian Goodness of Fit
Why Bother with Bayesian Analysis?
Some Examples
More Technical Examples
Model versus Model versus Model
10. Management of Hake Fisheries in Namibia Motivation
The Impact of Environmental Change
The Ecological Setting
The Data
The Models
The Confrontation
Bayesian Analysis of the LRSG Parameters
Implications
11. The Confrontation: Understanding How the Best Fit Is Found
Introduction
Direct Search and Graphics
Newton's Method and Gradient Search
Nongradient Methods: Avoiding the Derivative
The Art of Fitting
Hints for Special Problems
Appendix: "The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses
References
Index.
Notes:
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
Local notes:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2021. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Contributor:
Mangel, Marc.
Other format:
Print version: Hilborn, Ray The Ecological Detective
ISBN:
9781400847310
9780691034973
OCLC:
844328650