Franklin

Willful Ignorance : The Mismeasure of Uncertainty.

Other records:
Author/Creator:
Weisberg, Herbert I.
Edition:
1st ed.
Publication:
New York : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2014.
Format/Description:
Book
1 online resource (454 pages)
Subjects:
Research -- Statistical methods.
Probabilities.
Research -- Methodology.
Form/Genre:
Electronic books.
Summary:
An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers.
Contents:
Intro
WILLFUL IGNORANCE
CONTENTS
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
CHAPTER 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY
TWO DEAD ENDS
ANALYTICAL ENGINES
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
UNCERTAINTY
WILLFUL IGNORANCE
TOWARD A NEW SCIENCE
CHAPTER 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION
THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE
INVENTING PROBABILITY
STATISTICS
THE TAMING OF CHANCE
THE IGNORANCE FALLACY
THE DILEMMA OF SCIENCE
CHAPTER 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE
ORIGINS
Probability
Risky Business
Games, Odds, and Gambling
THE FAMOUS CORRESPONDENCE
Breaking the Symmetry Barrier
The Interrupted Game
WHAT DID NOT HAPPEN NEXT
AGAINST THE ODDS
A Fateful Journey
Reasoning in Games of Chance
CHAPTER 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON
THE MATHEMATICS OF CHANCE
Juan Caramuel
Joseph Sauveur
Jacob Bernoulli
Thomas Strode
Two Scottish Refugees: John Arbuthnot and David Gregory
Isaac Newton
EMPIRICAL FREQUENCIES
John Graunt
William Petty
Three Dutch Masters: Huygens, Hudde, and De Witt
Jacob Bernoulli
Edmond Halley
A QUANTUM OF CERTAINTY
Why not Huygens or Leibniz?
What about Probabilism?
Bernoulli's Meditations
Across the Channel
CHAPTER 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL
PUBLICATION AT LAST
THE ART OF CONJECTURING
Part One: The Annotated Huygens
Part Two: Permutations and Combinations
Part Three: Games of Chance
Part Four: Civil, Moral, and Economic Matters
A TRAGIC ENDING
CHAPTER 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER
MAN WITHOUT A COUNTRY
An Itinerant Teacher
Turning Point
Expanding His Empire
Defending His Empire
A Mixed Legacy
A FRACTION OF CHANCES
De Mensura Sortis
De Moivre's Epiphany
CHAPTER 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
REVOLUTIONARY REVERENDS
The Reverend Thomas Bayes
The Reverend Richard Price
The Famous Essay
Philosophical Significance.
FROM CHANCES TO PROBABILITY
The French Newton
Laplace's Philosophy of Probability
The Probability of Causes
Insufficient Reason
A Coincidence?
CHAPTER 8 BABEL
THE GREAT UNRAVELING
PROBABILITY AS A RELATIVE FREQUENCY
The Meaning of Randomness
The Reference Class Problem
The Problem of the Single Case
PROBABILITY AS A LOGICAL RELATIONSHIP
Keynesian Probability
PROBABILITY AS A SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT
Another Cambridge Prodigy
Subjectivity Italian Style
Subjectivity and Statistics
PROBABILITY AS A PROPENSITY
An Unorthodox Thinker
A World of Propensities
CHAPTER 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY
THE RAZOR'S EDGE
WHAT FISHER KNEW
WHAT REFERENCE CLASS?
The Monty Hall Problem
A POSTULATE OF IGNORANCE
Conditional Probabilities
Predicting Unique Events
Inside Information
The Two Envelope Problem
LAPLACE'S ERROR
CHAPTER 10 THE DECISION FACTORY
BEYOND MORAL CERTAINTY
Something Brewing
A Tale of Two Students
Contriving Ignorance
Statistical Significance
DECISIONS, DECISIONS
An Odd Couple
From Knowledge to Decisions
Rage Against the Machine
The Bayesian Revival
MACHINE-MADE KNOWLEDGE
CHAPTER 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE
SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS
Early Childhood Education
Aspirin for Prevention
FOOLED BY CAUSALITY
Heuristics and Biases
Are We Really So Dumb?
STATISTICS FOR HUMANS: BIAS OR AMBIGUITY?
The Representativeness Fallacy
The Conjunction Fallacy
The Allure of Causality
REGRESSION TOWARD THE MEAN
Explaining Regression Effects
Predictions for Individuals
The Regression of Science
CHAPTER 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY
A NEW PROBLEM
TRUST,…
… BUT VERIFY
THE FUTURE
MINDFUL IGNORANCE
APPENDIX: THE PASCAL-FERMAT CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INDEX.
Notes:
Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
Local notes:
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2021. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
Other format:
Print version: Weisberg, Herbert I. Willful Ignorance
ISBN:
9781118594414
9780470890448
OCLC:
879469438
Loading...
Location Notes Your Loan Policy
Description Status Barcode Your Loan Policy