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Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic / Justin-Damien Guenette.

Author/Creator:
Guenette, Justin-Damien.
Publication:
Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2021.
Format/Description:
Government document
Book
1 online resource (21 pages)
Series:
Policy research working papers
World Bank e-Library
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Other Title:
World Bank working papers.
Local subjects:
Business Cycle. (search)
Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies. (search)
Coronavirus. (search)
COVID-19. (search)
Disease Control and Prevention. (search)
Econometric Model. (search)
Economic Forecasting. (search)
Economic Shock. (search)
Health, Nutrition and Population. (search)
Macroeconomics and Economic Growth. (search)
Pandemic Impact. (search)
System Details:
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Summary:
The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery's strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes.
Contributor:
Yamazaki, Takefumi.
Other format:
Print Version: Guenette, Justin-Damien Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Publisher Number:
10.1596/1813-9450-9589
Access Restriction:
Restricted for use by site license.